The Paris meeting aims to find a path to end the war in eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists have carved off a slice of the country in a conflict since 2014 that has cost over 13,000 lives.
A political novice who played the president in a TV sitcom before winning office in April, Zelensky is desperate to end the war — his main election promise — and recover eastern Ukraine.
But he goes into the meeting weakened by President Trump’s suspicions of Ukraine. The U.S. impeachment hearings investigated Trump’s temporary freeze on military support for an ally that is a crucial counterweight to Russian power, in return for a political favor.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron are mediators in the negotiations — the first meeting of the contact group since 2016 to try to thaw the frozen conflict and revive the stalled cease-fire and peace process signed in 2014 and 2015.
No big peace breakthrough is expected, but there is optimism there could be some positive steps.
Zelensky adviser Andriy Yermak spelled out Ukraine’s demands for a new cease-fire and prisoner exchange in a speech at Chatham House in London on Thursday and threatened that without peace the country would “build a wall” and “live with it.” He did not offer details.
Zelensky trusts no one, going into the talks, he told Time magazine and European publications in a recent interview: not Putin and not the European leaders.
He swept to power on a wave of popular discontent with the political establishment, only to become immediately snarled in America’s impeachment drama, after Trump leaned on him to “do us a favor though” and to dig up dirt on former vice president Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden in a July 25 phone call that became a centerpiece of the impeachment probes.
The phone call — and the arm-twisting by the world’s superpower — did not place Zelensky in a particularly positive light. He tried to ingratiate himself with Trump by complaining that France and Germany were not doing enough to support Ukraine. In fact, Europe has contributed significantly more to Ukraine than the United States, 18 billion euros (about $20 billion) since 2015, Elmar Brok, special adviser to the European Commission president, told the Interfax Ukraine news agency in October.
The United States has committed $1.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since 2014, according to Defense News.
Since his election, Zelensky has adopted a Trump-like media strategy, bypassing regular channels for the most part, posting YouTube monologues on his channel Ze!President while striding on a treadmill or driving in his car. A Ukrainian Everyman, he dresses casually, rarely seen in a tie and sometimes unshaven.
But is Everyman who you want sitting in highly complex peace negotiations across the table from a leader like Putin, with his deep knowledge of the technical and military nuances of the conflict?
Putin’s long-term strategic goal is to have Ukraine in Russia’s backyard, rather than see it turn to the West in pursuit of a more open and accountable democratic model and an end to decades of crippling corruption.
Zelensky’s opponents fear his relative inexperience could see him cede too much to Putin.
Before he even became an actor playing the president in a sitcom, he once said he was willing to go down on his knees to beg Putin not take military action against Ukraine. (It was March 1, 2014, days after Russia moved to annex Crimea by sending forces in military uniforms without insignia to seized government buildings and raise Russian flags.)
Questions about his negotiating skills were planted in a carefully worded statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry after Kyiv and Moscow swapped prisoners in early September, praising Zelensky’s “reasonable approach and willingness to compromise.” Zelensky’s critics immediately took this as evidence he had given too much away.
Nationalist rallies in Kyiv protested what they saw as Zelensky’s “capitulation” after he endorsed a document, called the Steinmeier Formula, in October that lays down a timetable for peace, including elections leading to a special self-governing status for eastern regions and Ukraine regaining control of its Russian border.
It is opposed by nationalists and veterans in Ukraine, seen as legitimizing the separatists and giving Putin what he wants. Zelensky later said “there will be no capitulation” and no voting until all armed units withdraw and Ukraine has control of the border. Those issues are likely to be stumbling blocks in the Monday talks in Paris.
Victoria Voytsitska, a pro-reform analyst and former lawmaker, said there were bitter pills Ukrainians would not swallow, such as amnesty for separatist fighters. She was concerned that Zelensky would not stand firm against Putin in negotiating conditions for elections in the east.
She saw Zelensky’s most important task as ensuring European leaders did not weaken sanctions against Russia over its actions in Ukraine, despite the cost to their economies, and demonstrating Russia was in the wrong.
“I think it’s a great platform to communicate to both European leaders and to Putin the Ukrainian case clearly and publicly. . . . Here’s what we’ve done, here’s what we’ve achieved,” she said in an interview in Kyiv. “Ukraine has done so much. And it’s not us. It’s about war, and there’s a clear enemy who’s sitting at the same table. It’s Russia, that is basically feeding the war every day. And it has to stop.”
Pro-Europe Ukraine journalist, Vitaliy Portnikov, predicted that if Zelensky failed to cede ground to Putin, Moscow would simply intensify pressure on Ukraine.
“The Ukrainian president has a really very bad choice — between surrender and war,” he argued in an article published on the liberal website Grani.ru, which is critical of the Kremlin and blocked in Russia.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda met Zelensky in Vilnius last month and said Ukraine should not make harmful concessions to Russia “in holding talks with a fairly strong negotiating partner.”
He added: “We don’t want you to make concessions that could harm you.”
Zelensky’s advantage going into talks with Putin, analysts say, is that he offers a new start and a change from his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, whose relations with Russia were poisonous.
Konstantin Gaaze, political analyst with the Carnegie Center Moscow, said Zelensky needed to establish a working relationship with Putin to resolve the conflict. He said Putin might respect Zelensky more than Poroshenko, but he saw the new Ukrainian leader’s vulnerability as a result of the impeachment drama.
“He understands that his cards are better than Zelensky’s,” Gaaze said. “It makes the situation all about the personal relationship and how they sit together. I think Putin expects that when the door closes, Zelensky will be pragmatic.”
On Friday, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed “very cautious and a very moderate optimism,” over an improvement in relations between Moscow and Kyiv.
But despite the more positive atmosphere between the leaders, Zelensky’s hands are tied by opposition in Ukraine to any concessions, according to analysts.
“He has little to give to Putin, otherwise he risks destabilizing domestic politics,” said analyst Tim Ash of BlueBay Asset Management. He said in an email that Putin seemed to want to convey willingness to seem reasonable, without giving up much.
“Given Putin’s track record he is not one to roll over easily, and compromise is not generally in his vocabulary at least toward foes,” he wrote.
Stern reported from Kyiv, Ukraine. Natalie Gryvnyak in Kyiv contributed to this report.