There are three N.F.L. games this Thanksgiving — Bears at Lions (12:30 p.m. Eastern), Bills at Cowboys (4:30 p.m.) and Saints at Falcons (8:20 p.m.) — but the outcomes of these games have implications for nearly every N.F.L. team. Below, a guide for all 32 teams.
[All figures are from The Upshot’s N.F.L. simulator, an interactive calculator that encourages you to explore which outcomes matter most for your team.]
New England Patriots (10-1) You’re the Patriots! You have the best record in the league and you’ve won 10 consecutive division titles. Don’t flatter other teams by thinking about them.
Buffalo Bills (8-3) You are playing today. A win puts you solidly atop the A.F.C wild-card race. The other games shouldn’t matter to you.
New York Jets (4-7) You’re not eliminated yet, but things aren’t looking so good. A Bills loss would be helpful if you’re entertaining the idea of a 9-7 season.
Miami Dolphins (2-9) You’re eliminated, but that was sort of the point this year, wasn’t it? If you’re thinking about next year’s draft order, you don’t want other teams finishing with worse records than you. Cheer for the Falcons (3-8) and the Lions (3-7-1).
Baltimore Ravens (9-2) Today’s games really don’t affect your overall playoff picture. Relax and be thankful for your M.V.P.-caliber quarterback, and for your team’s league-leading fourth-down conversion rate.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) As it now stands, you’re the No. 6 seed, and the Bills are No. 5. A loss for them is good for you.
Cleveland Browns (5-6) Your team has a real chance at the playoffs, believe it or not. Root against the Bills.
Cincinnati Bengals (0-11) You don’t need anyone else’s help to finish this season in last place, but why not get some insurance? Lions and Falcons wins would be just fine.
Houston Texans (7-4) As a division leader, you shouldn’t worry so much about today’s games. But a Bills loss over the Cowboys would help you if you end up competing for a wild-card spot.
Indianapolis Colts (6-5), Tennessee Titans (6-5), Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) You are all Cowboys fans today.
Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) There’s no reason to think you and your electrifying quarterback aren’t going to win the division. But if you want insurance, a Bills loss would help your wild-card picture.
Oakland Raiders (6-5) The Oakland Raiders are actually in the A.F.C. playoff picture. That means you want the Bills to lose, which would loosen their claim to the No. 5 seed. The other games don’t concern you.
Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) The best way your season could end is 9-7. (Don’t overthink it.) If that’s going to happen, a Bills loss today will help your playoff chances.
Denver Broncos (3-8) The Upshot’s playoff simulator says you have less than a 1 percent chance to make the playoffs. None of these games really matter to you. Root for football. Have some turkey.
Dallas Cowboys (6-5) You are playing today, and winning this game is all that matters. (In-game analytics may be helpful in pursuing that goal.)
Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) What better way to spend a holiday than to watch the Cowboys lose while you are surrounded by your friends and family? That result would definitely help your chances.
New York Giants (2-9), Washington Redskins (2-9) At this point you may want to hope for the best possible 2020 draft picks, which means you want the teams with the worst records to win. Today, that means you’re a Lions fan and a Falcons fan.
Green Bay Packers (8-3) Your remaining schedule is favorable, and a 12-4 record is eminently achievable. You want other elite N.F.C. teams — like the Saints — to lose. That means today you are a Falcons fan.
Minnesota Vikings (8-3) Don’t worry about the lesser divisional battle between the Bears and Lions. Be greedy: You want a bye week. A Saints loss helps you get there.
Chicago Bears (5-6) You are playing today. Don’t worry about the playoffs. May your quarterback’s passes be true.
Detroit Lions (3-7-1) Don’t be sad that you are the Lions; you are continuing a great tradition by playing today. Support your team. Enjoy these Barry Sanders highlights.
New Orleans Saints (9-2) You’re on track to make some unlucky team travel to the Superdome for at least one playoff game. If you beat the Falcons today, that likelihood increases.
Carolina Panthers (5-6) Your playoff hopes are almost certainly conditional on an epic Saints meltdown. Root for that to happen, starting today.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) You’re too good to tank, but not so good that the outcome of these games matter to you in any real way. Enjoy the games.
Atlanta Falcons (3-8) Today is a game day against the division-leading Saints. You crushed them just a few weeks ago; why can’t you do it again? To pass the time, explore this scenario in which you are the No. 6 seed at 8-8.
San Francisco 49ers (10-1) Not that the Saints scare you, but there’s no reason to give them a chance to catch you, either. Root for the Falcons. Don’t worry about the Cowboys.
Seattle Seahawks (9-2) If you think you’re going to win the division, a Saints loss today would help your chances of a bye week.
Los Angeles Rams (6-5) Things in your world are not good. A Cowboys loss might increase your playoff probability a tiny bit, but that’s it.
Arizona Cardinals (3-7-1) Like many other bottom-dwellers, you are cheering for mediocrity today. May the Falcons and Lions win in your name.